NFL

Thoughts and Analysis on the NFL

Did the Browns just sign an older Johnny football?

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

RG3vsJohnny

With the Browns signing Robert Griffin (RG3) to a free agent contract, a wave of excitement was seen across social media platforms. It signalled the end of the Johnny Football era and also that the Hue Jackson had found a project quarterback to work with. The Cleveland Browns may very well still draft a quarterback second overall (it is probably highly recommended that they do) but the thought of RG3 returning to the rookie that dominated the NFL is quite enticing.

On closer look though, have the Browns just resigned an older version of Johnny Manziel?

  • Both QBs were seen as game changing superstars who would rack up tons of offense in college spread offenses tailored to their skill set.
  • Both could beat a team with their arm or legs.
  • Both are seen as egotistical prima donnas with off field baggage (while different, RG3 and his return from his knee surgery was annoying as hell).
  • Not a lot of teammates have come out and defended their ability to lead a team.

 

It is also similar story when it comes to how they exited their respective teams with the Redskins benching RG3 for the entire season (and paving the way for new “franchise quarterback” Kirk Cousins to lead them to the playoffs), and Manziel pretty much not even bothering to turn up when benched by the Browns.

Using stats from their final seasons (even though a small sample size, RG3’s rookie season was in pretty much the Baylor offense as Kyle Shanahan had to create an offense to fit him) the numbers are similar

Manziel – 6 starts (2-4 record) 7TDs 5 INTs 1500 yards (23 years)
RG3 – 7 starts (2-5 record) 4TDs 6 INTs 1694 yards (26 years)

While statistics can be presented in different ways to make an argument, it would be hard to find many Browns fans who see RG3 (as he currently is) as an automatic upgrade over Johnny Manziel.

Hayne Plane flight path year 2

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

hayne

Now that the rookie year of Jarryd Hayne has finished with the San Francisco 49ers, the big question is where to from here. It has been a dramatic year in terms of his season here in the Australian media. With early stories blown out of proportion about how he was going to take the league by storm. Although he flashed in preseason (especially as a punt returner), it was evident he had a lot to learn. I personally expected him to have success as a punt returner as these skills translated perfectly from playing fullback for the Parramatta Eels in the National Rugby League (NRL). Although in the NRL he didn’t have blockers (during kick returns), returning kicks from his fullback position was always an exciting prospect.

Although he made the initial 53, it was terribly covered in Australia, with many casual/new fans not understanding that the bottom part of an NFL roster is constantly influx. His placement on the practice squad early into the season was necessary, and is probably where he needed to be given his lack of experience. His return at the end of the season has allowed him to demonstrate a better understanding of running routes and the different aspects of the passing game. His running game has improved (evident by large runs) but he still needs to improve in this area as running with blocking schemes is a foreign concept.

Where to from here?
The big question will be what happens now? Ideally his rights are retained by the 49ers but this is all dependent on whether Jim Tomsula and his staff retain their positions. It will be a long off season of work for Hayne as another crop of rookie running backs will enter the league with more experience playing the position than Hayne will ever have. Hopefully the Australian media and fans realise this. These kids have got full scholarships to college because they are good at playing the position and are not just chumps off the street. If for some reason the 49ers relinquished their rights to Hayne, there would be other teams happy to bring him into their training camps to check him out.

My thoughts on Hayne
I will admit I was skeptical of his transition at first but must say he did flash. I believe he could be an awesome special teams player – both as a returner and a gunner. Both of this positions transfer well with kick returning and chasing in the NRL. He also can tackle. He should continue working on his receiving and rushing as he has shown that he could fill in during a game for some snaps. He needs to work on ensuring he understands where the first down marker is, and understanding the defensive concepts for space to work in.  He also needs a few of the running backs on the roster to be cut as they build their practice squad for the 2016 season. I look forward to watching year 2 of the Hayne Plane’s journey.

 

OZ’s 2015 season award predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

Season awards

As announced earlier on twitter,  I will be predicting the 2015 Season award winners.  None of the players selected played in the season opener.  I have no idea how accurate these may be, but they are just my own thoughts and opinions.  Feel free to debate them either here or on Twitter.

Most Valuable Player – J.J Watt

A bold prediction given the season he had last year.  I can see J.J Watt having an even bigger season.  Watt comes across as a player who will do whatever it takes to get better.  While I don’t think his sack numbers will be the same, I can see more game changing plays.  If Clowney is able to live up to his draft hype, Watt can wreck havoc on opposing offensive lines.  If the Texans make a run at the AFC South title, I can see Watt getting votes.

Offensive Player of the Year – Andrew Luck

After the Thursday Night game, Gronk got consideration but it is a quarterback driven league which means Luck will push for the MVP award.  He will put up big numbers with the offensive weapons around him.  The big question is can he push for record numbers in the statistical categories?

Defensive Player of the Year – Luke Kuechly

Kuechly is arguably the best middle linebacker in the NFL.  The Panthers defense will once again be a force, and if they carry the Panthers to the NFC South title, it will be on the back of a massive year from Kuechly.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Duke Johnson

I loved this kid when he was at the University of Miami.  Johnson holds running back records at the U, and will play all three downs.  While he is overcoming niggling injuries, I believe he will be the starter by mid season and could potentially help the Browns pull off some upsets later in the year.  He will lead all rookie running backs in rushing yards.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Eric Kendricks

While I think Leonard Williams will be a stud, this kid can be special.  While he is not currently the starter, Kendricks has too much talent to not see the field.  He will make plays all over the field, and will be a difference maker for the Vikings.

Comeback Player of the Year – Sam Bradford

Can he last the whole season? If he does, he will put up monster numbers in Chip Kelly’s season.  He has looked good in the preseason.  Given his injury history, he will easily be a favorite for this.  I did consider nominating Adrian Peterson but they could be seen as controversial,

OZ’s NFC West Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 NFC West predictions

The picture says it all, I see the Seahawks winning the NFC West.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Easily the strongest roster in the NFC West.  It will be interesting to see how they manage Marshawn Lynch’s workload.  Do they start mixing in the young guys to build for the future?  Or see how many carries they can get out of Beast Mode until he falls to pieces?  The addition of Jimmy Graham is also intriguing.  Do they have him as a move around tight end or use him as a pseudo wife receiver who is never near the line of space.  The wide receivers will be interesting to watch.  While Tyler Lockett is the hottest thing going around at the moment, I am interested in how Paul Richardson develops and whether he gets more targets.  The defensive side of the ball speaks for itself.  Great collection of talent.  The Kam Chancellor contract situation may be the only thing that may cause some disharmony on that side of the ball (more from ensuring the secondary is in sync when the season starts with the losses they have had).

My second year guy – Paul Richardson (WR)

He may start the year on the PUP list, but I am interested to watch the development of this kid.  Highly talented college recruit (played on the same high school team as Robert Woods and Marqise Lee before ending up at Colorado via dismissal from UCLA) and was touted as an answer to the weak wide receiver group when drafted.  If he can come back strong, he could work himself back into the rotation.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Great season last year that came to an end due to a lack of quarterback depth (or crazy amount of quarterback injuries – depending how you look at it).  Carson Palmer will return from injury and the offense should run fine.  The wide receivers will be fun to watch when they can get Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown on the field at the same time.  The running backs offer intrigue, Andre Ellington is not built to be an every down back.  The drafting of David Johnson will allow Bruce Arians to use a committee approach.  The defense will continue to be strong and the defensive line should adjust to the loss of Darnell Dockett.

My second year guy – Troy Niklas (TE)

Not that I am a huge fan of him, I see this position as an open competition.  If Niklas shows he is a complete tight end, he will see more action on the field and leave up to his high draft status.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

With all the roster changes, this year will be a challenge.  The string of retirements will test the depth of the roster (a strength that many analysts have written about in the past).  Colin Kaepernick needs to turn it around if the 49ers have a chance of making a run at the division.  Whether it is development issues or the lack of talent around him, he needs to prove that he is a quarterback that can work in the pocket.  The defense will be interesting as the next wave of youth will need to step in and play.  Navarro Bowman being 100% healthy will be a big factor in determining how good the defense is.

My second year guy – Jimmie Ward (CB)

Ended his rookie season on injured reserve, the first round draft pick was touted as a versatile play maker.  He did flash his ability to make a play.  If he can stay healthy, his versatility will enable the defense coordinator to be creative in passing situations.

ST LOUIS RAMS

Another season and the same questions, do they have a NFL starting quarterback? Nick Foles regressed, and ended up being traded to them.  While there is massive hype of Todd Gurley, he is coming off a serious knee injury.  The biggest worry for him is that they then drafted a ton of offensive line talent.  Potentially the Rams could be two rookies on the right side of the line (left defensive ends are licking their lips already) which will make life hell for both Foles and the Rams running backs.  The defensive continues to get stronger.  The defensive unit will carry this team this season.  The addition of Nick Fairly will be intriguing as he could wreck havoc as part of the defensive line rotation.

My second year guy – Lamarcus Joyner (DB)

This would have been E.J Gaines before his injury.  Joyner had big wraps coming out of Florida State as a versatile defensive back.  If he can improve his technique and knowledge of the playbook, he could be a good nickel corner who will make plays on passing downs.

OZ’s NFC South Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 NFC South predictions

While the picture says it all, I could see any of the top 3 teams winning the division.  My gut feeling is that the Panthers win the NFC South.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

 CAROLINA PANTHERS

I have decided to leave Carolina here, even after hearing of the Kelvin Benjamin news.  Jonathan Stewart has his chance to be the guy in Carolina’s backfield.  It will be interesting to see how he goes.  Cam Newton will have his work cut out for him with the offensive line still looking shaky, and a rookie receiver to work with.  Greg Olsen will have a big year (even before the Benjamin news) as he is a safe target for Cam Newton to work the middle of the field.  The Panthers defensive is one of the best in the league.  Luke Kuechly is the best linebacker in the league (sorry Bobby Wagner fans) and he has a great young defensive line in front of him.  The defense and “Super Cam” will get the Panthers home in a division where a 9-7 record could get the job done.

My second year guy – Corey “Philly” Brown (WR)

With the Kelvin Benjamin injury, the Panthers need to decide do they go outside the organisation or trust in the players they have developed.  Brown has shown flashes in limited opportunities.  He has the chance to gain extra snaps and show the league what Carolina saw when they signed him as a undrafted free agent.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Probably most people’s favorite to win the division.  They are looking to establish a new identity as more of a running team (we will wait to actually see that).  They traded away Jimmy Graham (who didn’t really play like one of the best tight ends last year) for a first rounder and Max Unger.  Unger will strengthen the rushing game in the middle of the line but missed time last year with injuries.  Mark Ingram is expected to see more carries but the signing of C.J Spiller, and the preseason performance of Khiry Robinson means we will see a committee approach.  The defense is still a mystery.  They have some nice pieces but need to put it altogether.  The infusion of youth in the linebacker group may help, but it could be a long season of shootouts.

My second year guy – Brandon Coleman (WR)

Marques Colston is getting older and slower, Brandin Cooks didn’t make it through his rookie season uninjured.  There is a massive opportunity for young receivers to step up for the Saints.  Coleman was seen as a “big receiver” who’s draft stock fell due to Rutgers having terrible quarterback play.  If these views are legit, he may have a nice season with Brees throwing him the ball.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Big hype team last year (maybe due to Hard Knocks) but the wheels fell off early.  The results of this team seem based on how many games of the season Julio Jones plays.  Jones came out of the gates quickly at the start of the year and was a beast until injury struck.  The tight end situation still isn’t great.  The offensive and defensive lines are still a work in progress,  The Falcons defensive may need another year to gel but Vic Beasley and Brooks Reed will increase the pass rush success, and Desmond Trufant is one of the best young corner backs in the league.

My second year guy – Devonta Freeman (RB)

While the lines both have 2nd year players that underwhelmed (Matthews and Hageman), The running back position will be intriguing.  Freeman looked good in limited touches, and I would expect him to continue to see work.  Even with the Tevin Coleman draft pick, Freeman knows the playbook and will get first chance to make the job his.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

This pains me as a defensive fan to put Tampa Bay down at the bottom of the division.  Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are studs. and they do have some nice players in other positions.  The key to the Bucs pulling off upsets will be Winston.  If he can keep rookie mistakes down, they will be in some close games.  Mike Evans looks like he is ready to be the number one wide receiver, and I am personally pulling for Doug Martin to find some form of the past.

My second year guy – Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE)

While everyone is quick to point out that Winson loved throwing to Nick O’Leary (his college tight end).  Seferian-Jenkins is more of an all-round tight end.  I believe he is developing as a good young tight end, and can quickly become a safety blanket for Winston.

OZ’s NFC North Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 NFC North

While the picture says it all, I could see any of the top 3 teams winning the division.  My gut feeling is that the Packers win the NFC North.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers offense is a crazy machine that can rack up points and yards.  The wide receivers have already shown that they can both put up numbers, and Rodgers will have a chance to enjoy mismatches on most passing plays. Eddie Lacy and James Starks offer a solid rushing attack which will allow the Packers once again to enjoy the play action game.  The defense has had an injection of youth in the secondary.  Both Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are versatile defensive backs that can play across the secondary.  While the offensive line will always be considered a position of concern, the linebacker group is my concern.  It will be interesting to see how they plan to use Clay Matthews, he had to move inside to solidify the position last year which then affected his ability to rush the passer as he had other assignments in defensive packages.  I wonder whether he plays a hybrid role once again moving inside on early downs and rushing the passer on obvious passing downs.

My second year guy – Richard Rodgers (TE)

While the Packers have weapons all over the field, they have struggled to replace Jermichael Finley’s post injury production.  As far as I can remember, the Packers always had a tight end that would worry you as a defense.  Rodgers showed flashes last year and will continue to get more looks from Aaron Rodgers (especially in the red zone).

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I will address the “elephant in the room” and say welcome back Adrian Peterson.  While we can argue about parenting decisions and his values all we want, the bottom line is he is a once in a generation running back.  It will be interesting to see whether he just slides back into being the human battering ram that we remember, or whether the long layoff as resulted in some “rust”.  Teddy Bridgewater showed last year that he is a legit starting quaterback in the NFL and will benefit from Adrian Peterson just being on the field as defenses will be worried about him.  Kyle Rudolph at the moment looks as he always does, potentially could dominate the league but will most likely be banged up.  The wide receiving core offers a variety of weapons.  It will be interesting how they are managed.  Charles Johnson looked good last year but seemed to fade when he became the main focus of the defensive scheme.  Mike Wallace is Mike Wallace – destroys secondaries one week, destroys locker room relationships the next.  Cordarrelle Patterson is a mystery wrapped in an enigma – so much potential but just doesn’t seem to get it.  Stephon Diggs is the real surprise packet and could potentially be a starter by the end of the year, if consistent.  The defense is becoming potentially one of the best in the NFL.  While Trae Waynes will struggle as a rookie, name one rookie period who didn’t.  There is talent on every level with Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith all future studs at the respective positions.

My second year guy – David Yankey (OG)

Not just because he is an Aussie.  Yankey was given the equivalent of a red shirt year to increase his strength and acclimatize to the NFL.  At Stanford, he showed that he can be a force in the trenches.  He does have a chance to push for a guard position on the line.

DETROIT LIONS

The offense on this team could potentially match it with the Packers.  Golden Tate has been a blessing since arriving from Seattle, and has racked up catches and yards after catch.  They have hit a home run with Ameer Abdullah.  The offensive line is shaping up as a strength.  The defense is going to be the reason they win or lose games (Matthew Stafford will always sling the ball like Brett Favre).  The losses on the defensive line will test the scheme as they lost three defensive tackles out of their rotation.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that teams are going to attack the middle of their defense with a power run game early to see whether Ngata and company can handle it.  The rest of the defense is solid, and DeAndre Levy (one of the most underrated players in the NFL) will continue to make plays.

My second year guys – Caraun Reid (DT)

While everybody will be watching whether Eric Ebron has finally worked out how to operate in the Lions system, I will be watching Reid’s development.  A gem of a draft pick late, Reid was touted as an interior pass rushing force.  If he has developed well, he could form a nice combination with Haloti Ngata in the middle of the Lions defensive line and solidify a glaring weakness.

CHICAGO BEARS

This is not a knee jerk reaction to the Kevin White news or my thoughts on Jay Cutler’s ability to do anything.  I believe the Bears are still be rebuilt.  While they have pieces such as Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, the offensive line is still a work in progress (insert Jay Cutler has thrown another interception joke here).  The defense, although have some talented pieces, will struggle with the shift from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.  While they have added 3-4 players to try to accelerate the adjustment, history shows that teams undertaking this transition have often struggled.

My second year guy – Kyle Fuller (CB)

I loved this pick last year, and Fuller showed that he can be a play making force in the NFL.  Hopefully he has recovered fully from last year.  Depending on how the scheme is set up, him and Tim Jennings will form a nice cornerback tandem.

OZ’s NFC East Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 NFC East predictions

While the picture says it all, I could see any of the top 3 teams winning the division.  My gut feeling is that the Giants win the NFC East.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

NEW YORK GIANTS

It must be due to be that season where all the media says “Tom Coughlin must be fired ” and then the Giants make a run deep into the play offs.  This offense could be very dangerous (not just because of the OBJ hype train) as most players will have had a season to learn the offense.  The addition of Shane Vereen gives them versatility out of the backfield as well as an outlet that Eli hasn’t had in a few seasons.  While OBJ has taken the world by storm, I could see his stats decrease.  Victor Cruz if healthy will get some of the targets he saw last year, as well as the versatile Shane Vereen.  Ben McAdoo has come from a Green Bay system which focuses on match-ups rather than feeding your stud the ball.  The defense is worries me in terms of the talent in the linebackers (yes, I know I am beating an old drum) and the safeties.  I believe the defense (and not the offensive line) will be the reason the Giants either make the play-offs or miss them.

My second year guy – Weston Richburg (C)

The Giants knocked this pick out of the park.  He will only continue to get better, and should be one of the top centers in the NFL.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The mad scientist, Chip Kelly continues to cause stir in “NFL experts”.  He has dealt players away and changed entire starting position groups in an endeavor to improve.  I guess you could see the high turnover and “hand-picking” your guys as very similar to the College approach.  The offense has plenty of weapons, Nelson Agolar will be a great NFL wide receiver,and the defensive line is very underrated. The Kiko Alonso pick up is outstanding, and I am intrigued at whether they can get him and Mychal Kendricks on the field together in multiple packages.  The re-worked secondary and the quarterback will be the two areas that will win or lose them games.  While everybody has anointed Sam Bradford the starter, I believe he has to show he can run the offense.  Yes he has the big contract, but so did Matt Flynn when Seattle were “developing” a mid round pick called Russell Wilson.  Mark Sanchez has shown he can run the offense effectively.  The secondary has some great pieces, Eric Rowe will be a stud.  Malcom Jenkins has become a solid safety since moving from corner back.  Byron Maxwell is the prized free agent signing, and I hope he isn’t just a product of the Seattle defensive scheme.

My second year guy – Josh Huff (WR)

While Jordan Matthews will have all the hype (and rightfully so), Huff intrigues me.  He is a danger on kick returns, and has knowledge of the system in which Kelly runs.  With Matthews moving to the outside, I am intrigued to see how his targets are affected.  Were his targets a match up and talent thing, or manufactured in the system to feed the slot receiver?

DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the league.  I am worried that they can’t just plug and play a running back behind it and get the same production.  Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden at this point in their careers are not Demarco Murray.  While Dez Bryant can be argued as the top wide receiver in the NFL (I said argued, not that I think he is), there isn’t a lot on the depth chart that strikes fear in the secondary of other teams.  The defense has begun to have youth injected, so they may be prone to mistakes.  I personally hope Sean Lee makes it to the end of the season for once.

My second year guy – Demarcus Lawrence (DE)

Lawrence flashed his talent last year after overcoming early injuries.  If he can continue to develop, him and Randy Gregory could form an elite set of pass rushers in the future.  He will need a big year for the Cowboys to trouble the NFC East.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The quarterback is a massive talking point here (insert RG3 joke or comment or twitter hashtag).  Jokes aside, the team has weapons at wide receiver and running back.  I believe that RG3 can become a solid quarterback option and potential dual threat (although Cousins will start somewhere in the NFL).  The tight end position is thin with injuries. The Offensive line is solid.  The defense has some talented pieces but is still very thin.  I will be interested to see if they have a high pick in the draft whether they draft a quarterback.

My second year guy – Bashaud Breeland (CB)

I was tempted to go Trent Murphy who will need to step up with the Brian Orakpo departure, but Breeland is a play maker.  The secondary of Washington seems to be torched regularly, and the DeAngelo Hall injury means they need a youngster to step up.  Although he is suspended for the first game, a big season from Breeland will allow the Redskins to consider other positions of need in the draft.

OZ’s AFC West Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 AFC West predictions

The picture says it all, I see the Chiefs winning the AFC West.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs defense is a strong unit that potentially got stronger.  The addition of Marcus Peters gives them a play maker in the secondary and the return of Eric Berry will make quarterbacks think about just throwing passes up for their guys to go get.  The offense was terrible last year.  Jeremy Maclin will prove that wide receivers do not go to Kansas City to watch their careers die.  He will get in the end zone.  If Andy Reid can get it together with the offense, and Alex Smith continues to protect the ball, the Chiefs will trouble most teams

My second year guy – De’Anthony Thomas (WR)

Thomas was a play making machine in college.  If it all comes together (and the coaching staff work out how to use him) he could be a match winner.  He has the potential to be a touchdown threat as a rusher, receiver, and returner,

DENVER BRONCOS

The age of the roster will begin to catch them.  Peyton Manning, while cerebral, can’t do much to avoid the rush physically.  The loss of Julius Thomas will be an adjustment as I don’t believe he was a product of the offense and Manning.  The defense will keep them in games.  Ware, Miller, and Ray will put pressure on the quarterback, Malik Jackson is a beast on the inside, and Chris Harris is a dynamite cornerback who will mix it with most wide receivers.  While a talented roster, the end of season form of Peyton Manning last year was a worry.  The offensive line additions will need to acclimatize to the NFL very quickly or it could be a long year.

My second year guy – Bradley Roby (CB)

Roby was once touted as the best corner back in the draft.  He has the talent (and has flashed) and if he continues to develop, this secondary will make plays and score points off turnovers.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Are they going to Los Angeles?  The main focus should be this season.  The AFC West title race will be tight, and this team will make a run at it.  The offensive line will be the key for this team.  They have a nice stable of running backs – Gordon, Oliver, Woodhead; as well as a solid set of wide receivers.  While Antonio Gates will be missed early, there is enough talent to enjoy the extra catches in the offense.  The defense is an underrated unit and if they find their form early, they will keep the team in most games.  Division play will determine the chances the Chargers have at making the playoffs.

My second year guy – Jeremiah Attaochu (OLB)

This kid is a force off the edge.  If he can continue to develop pass rushing moves, he will enjoy single coverage opposite Melvin Ingram.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

It pains me to have the Raiders at the bottom of the division.  I am a firm believer in the team that they are building, I just feel at the moment inexperience will cause them growing pains.  The Michael Crabtree signing could be a blessing for Derek Carr as both Crabtree and Cooper are legitimate receiving threats.  The defense is coming together slowly.  While Khalil Mack and Justin Ellis are young studs, there is still more talent needed on this side of the ball.  The secondary is worrying but Charles Woodson, as a mentor, will ensure that the young defensive backs continue to develop.

My second year guy – Gabe Jackson (OG)

This kid is an absolute mauler.  I loved this draft pick (as well as the Mack and Carr picks).  If the line syncs well with the addition of Rodney Hudson, we will be seeing touchdown highlights with Gabe Jackson racking up the pancakes.

OZ’s AFC South Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 AFC South predictions

The picture says it all, I see the Colts winning the AFC South.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This favourite to win the division.  This offense has the potential to put up massive points and break multiple offensive records.  Andre Johnson can still play and will thrive not being constantly double teamed.  Frank Gore will provide the Colts with the running game they have not had for years.  Before arguing that he is old, please look back at not only his career stats, but also at how many young backs he kept on the bench.  The defense is the weakness to me.  While there are some studs on this side of the ball, I worry that the offensive focus of the team building reminds me of the Peyton Manning days – Get the big lead and go quarterback hunting.

My second year guy – Jack Mewhort (RT)

Keep Andrew Luck upright and the offense keeps on putting up points.  He looked strong as a rookie, and with two solid bookends, Andrew Luck must be smiling.

HOUSTON TEXANS

The post season bump from Hard Knocks is what the Texans will be hoping for.  The quarterback will be an issue but Bill O’Brien will find a serviceable quarterback.  The Foster injury could be either devastating or a blessing.  If they find a back that can serviceable, they may be able take some of the workload during the season off Foster.  If they can’t, then the offense will struggle.  The front seven looks great but the story on defense will be whether or not the secondary holds up in 3 and 4 wide receiver sets.

My second year guy – Louis Nix (DT)

“Irish Chocolate” has not lived up to the hype there was when he entered the draft.  Vince Wilfork will be able to mentor him, and hopefully get him back to wrecking havoc like he did in college.  If they play multiple fronts, I don’t see many teams running on a 4 man front of him, Watt, Wilfork, and Crick.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I love what the Jaguars are building in terms of this team overall.  Hope the owner sees the same thing.  The offense keeps adding talent, and hopefully Blake Bortles will continue to develop.  They are potentially loaded at most skill positions.  The offensive line is still a work in progress and will need to improve to keep Bortles upright.  The defense is still a work in progress. The defensive line could cause problems if the players live up to their potential.  The secondary is a weak point and with no quarterback pressure, they could be shredded once more.

My second year guy – Telvin Smith (OLB)

This kid can play. He is an undersized linebacker but has a nose for the football.  He flashed big play potential last year, and I believe he can develop to be a game changer on the defensive side of the ball.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Mettenberger was the answer last year, Mariota is the answer this year.  Hopefully more to be excited about for Titans fans in terms of talent on the field.  It will take time to see the results though.  The offense will be fun to watch in terms of what scheme they run.  The defense should improve with the addition of Brian Orakpo (if he can stay healthy), but will still be a work in progress.

My second year guy – Taylor Lewan (LT)

The Titans were ridiculed for taking him as early as they did, but they built for the future with the pick.  He has looked good, and will be the blind side protector for years to come.  It will be interesting watching him (and the rest of the offensive line) adjust to Mariota being a quarterback who can run at any time.

OZ’s AFC North Predictions

Posted on by ozsportsfan1

2015 AFC North

The picture says it all, I see the Steelers winning the AFC North.  The analysis is below with some other thoughts.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

This pains me as a Ravens fan to say but I can see the Steelers winning the division.  The offense will continue to thrive as it did last year.  Martavis Bryant will continue develop as a weapon, and the addition of Sammie Coates gives Big Ben another big body on third down.  DeAngelo Williams will make sure they don’t lose a beat with Le’Veon Bell suspended.  The defense is the main reason I can see them winning.  They are moving from the Zone Blitz scheme to more of a Cover-2 look.  This will allow all the young talent on the defensive line to get after the QB rather than being gap disciplined.  Tuitt and Heyward should enjoy putting up some sack numbers.  Timmons and Shazier allow the Steelers to play linebackers on all downs.  The Secondary will be the main area of concern but increased quarterback pressure would assist them in limiting the big plays.

My second year guy – Stephon Tuitt (DE)

While Ryan Shazier is an obvious choice, and will be a stud linebacker, I think Tuitt could have a big year.  Coming out of college, he was a talent who had a down year.  The change of scheme should allow him to rush the passer more, something he was good at while at Notre Dame.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens fan wanted me to have them win the division, but I see some struggles with Trestman as the new offensive coordinator.  The run first zone-blocking scheme with play action worked very well last year, I wonder whether Trestman keeps these elements or tailors the offense to what skill talent is available.  Given his history, Flacco will excel under Trestman, it will just be how long does it take to learn the offense scheme for all positions.  The defense will once again be dominant, the loss Ngata will be negated by a rotation of Williams, Jernigan, and third round pick Carl Davis.  The addition of Kendrick Lewis will strengthen the safety position.

My second year guy – Timmy Jernigan (DT)

With the loss of Haloti Ngata, the defensive tackle position is seen as weak.  Timmy Jernigan was a beast coming out of Florida State, and will continue to make plays for the Ravens.  The combination of Jernigan/Williams in the middle and Suggs/Dumervil on the outside means Jernigan will get penetration up the middle

CINCINNATI BENGALS

The Bengals have been consistent the last couple of years and it is really make or break for them in terms of taking the next step.  The progression plan is in place with the Bengals drafting young line talent.  Jeremy Hill and Gio are a dangerous combo.  The defense will be a force with Geno Atkins hopefully back to being a beast in the middle (2 years from his injury).  My concern for the defense is the secondary has aged, and whether they continue to decline.

My second year guy – Bodine Russell (C)

The offensive line is one of the best in the NFL but for it to function, Russell needs to own the position.  With the talent along the line, teams will come through the middle.  If Russell plays well, the Bengals will make a run at the division.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

I love the talent they have added through the draft this year.  It is just the team owner having the patience to let them build (and them hold onto the talent).  I believe Duke Johnson has the talent to get some carries off West and Crowell and could be a three-headed rushing monster.  With Pettine as coach, the defense will trouble teams, and a ground and pound attack could be the way they go.

My second year guy – Christian Kirksey (LB)

Great rookie year last season.  If he continues to develop, it will allow Mingo to just rush the passer. This kid will be a mainstay in the Browns linebacking corps for years to come.