that's OZmusing

After letting it all play out and sink it, I can respect Andrew Luck’s decision to retire and that some of
the circumstances were out of his control in regards to the news getting out.

The Colts acknowledged that it was known and in the process of becoming known to his teammates
so it wasn’t just a “walked out” on his teammates before the season started. While the crowd was
clearly pissed, when it is dropped on social media during a game (clearly Luck does not know this
straight away) then an emotion driven reaction is always going to occur.

Rather than focus on the negatives and all the “drama click bait” what needs to be the focus is that
he felt that there was a cycle he couldn’t break without walking away from football. While people
will say how weak he is to walk away from football, they do not understand the physical demands
and toll his body has taken. No one gets publicly ridiculed when they change jobs as they “can’t get
along with their boss” or “it is too draining”. The element of directly comparing yourself to someone
else is “apples to oranges”. No circumstance let alone person will be identical. Yes he is lucky
enough to have his degree and money from his career but he has earnt that right. Maybe the
bashers of luck are more focussed on “what they don’t have” in comparison rather than the true
reasons why he walked away. I personally respect the decision and hope that he has a fruitful and enjoyable post football life.

The New England Patriots have been regarded as one of the best organisiations of the 2000s on the back of their run of championships. Many have analysed the model or system that they have incorporated and have applied it to multiple areas of life. The premise of this article is to look at the hobby of card collecting and building your collection and offering ways that the reported “common principles” could be applied to your collecting endeavours.

Know your “system” inside out
When people discuss the Patriots system, they talk about how well Bill Belichick understands what is required of his players in his “system”. He does not get caught up in all the “hot” things in the league, he sticks to his lane.

Collecting application – Find your niche. Often people returning to the hobby, or those that have been in it for a while, get caught up chasing the hot player in every product or even trying to collect their guy in every product produced (even I have been guilty of this). This is expensive and often an endeavour that leads to a lot of money spent for little return e.g. boxes ripped and not hitting the guy, breaks you have skunked in, paying marked prices on that player around release.

I have been lucky that I have found my niche (or atleast a couple of areas). Prizm football is my product of choice and I have worked to ensure that I know it inside out and back to front in terms of SPs, SSP color, variations, box ratios for inserts etc. The idea behind this is I enjoy putting sets together and like to hunt for deals.

Acquire “talent that fits your system”
Coach Belichick doesn’t use a “jam a square peg in a round hole” approach to building the roster, Anyone bought in to the organisation has a perceived skill set that is required. If his system requires a certain style of Cornerback e.g tall or long; he isn’t signingdrfting a 5’9 guy.

Collecting application -As above, he get caught up in the hot things and can often decide to add things that don’t fit our collections (to then turn and sell often for a loss). Your Personal Collection (PC) is yours so collect what you love and want. While some items can be flipped for short term profit or you get it right on a guy and can gain some long term profit, you can often take a hit. As much as we want to talk about investing in cards, I work on the idea that the majority of things I buy will depreciate in value. As soon as you cut the box wrap, you are operating at a loss of the box price.

Ignore the noise
When questionable things have happened to the Patriots or they have made a questionable decision e.g. Using rules that are not commonly known, going for 4th downs or even the amount of different “gates” they have been caught up with. They keep doing what they do, they do not seem to be influenced by people outside the organisastion.

Collecting application – Social media has meant that we can see all the cards around the world being hit, get collecting information and interact with many people. We need to realise that their are often agendas as well. The Investing accounts that gurantee the returns, hobby saviours, breakers who are a business in the end of the day (Sorry to my friends that are breakers but it is true). With the amount of information and posts, we can get swayed into ideas of what we should collect or how we should collect.

Project 2020 is an example where there are people who missed the early flip and profit and are stuck with selling cards at a loss. Breakers who “pull fire” and have the hottest hands influence where we should break as we are chasing the hits that we have seen and already pulled – the boxes and packouts are done with odds so it is all chance on the cases of cards they get. The Bounty on a card by a distributor or card shop has people chasing the lottery ticket (but you are buying at marked up retail price to get a card to sell back). In the end of the day, we are humans and can get caught up in things (reading back above, it could be a rant haha) but our collections is for us and we can share it. People will flex but in the end of the day, if you need to be negative in the hobby, maybe you should check out your reality and why you feel the dopamine hit of a negative comment is required…..

Low risk bargain shopping (depreciated market value)
The Patriots annually get an article or two about how smart they are with the free agent market by signing a high profile player (or swinging a trade) by buying when the market has settled. Think about all the Cam Newton stuff currently.

Collecting aplication – First thing that comes to mind here is don’t buy on the secondary market around release. Everyone is scrambling to make their money back by being the first to ebay or comc with crazy marked up BINS. Everyone of us that has sold cards knwos that feeling of hitting stuff you don’t want in breaks (think random teams and you get a team you hate) and you are trying to recoup your money to buy PC stuff.

Second thought I have on this relates to picking up things before the booms (or if you are going to prospect, have a plan). Perosnally I missed the 2012 Prizm football boom and will have serveral Tom Brady cards that will be “future OZ’s problem”. Often there will be players in sets about to retire, close to records or signing contracts (think Mahomes new deal) and the market goes crazy. Sometimes it is get in after release when the price has settled.

Propsecting I am not an expert at (or even experienced as a novice haha) but would recommend having convictions and be willing to take the hit if it doesn’t work out (and be comfortable). Similar to the Chad OchoCinco and Albert Haynesworth trades that Patriots made years back. They gave up low round draft picks for the talent, it didn’t work out and they cut them with no real impact on the team from an asset point of view.

Moving your assets while the market is high
Drew Bledsoe, Richard Seymour, Chandler Jones and Deion Branch are just some of the players they traded away from the team at a time perceived to early by fans (even Bledsoe with Brady as a fan favourite). The Patriots received great compensation in return and most deals look like a great move by them (Chandler Jones may be the exception in terms of his age and performance since leaving but financially it was the right move) as the Players appeared to “not be as great as they were”.

Collecting application – There will be cards that we deem that we no longer want or want to shake up our collections. If this is the case, sitting on a card that has market value hoping it will climb and we can cash in might not be the best way to go as the market might crash as people move on to the next “hot thing”. Twitter is full of the “man I sold to early on this card” threads. My response (often told I am too philosophical or I take it to seriously) is Cash in hand is better than a piece of Cardboard. While everyone wishes they held their Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes rookie year cards, clearly you got a great deal to sell them and hopefully used the money to add pieces to your collection. One injury (or career circumstance) and a player’s market may no longer exist e.g Mark Grace in baseball, RG3 and Andrew Luck markets in football.

The 24 hour rule
Often in books and articles, Belichick seems to refer to having 24 hours to celebrate or dwell on a loss and then it is back to work (most coaches seems to adopt this mindset). This allows us to go through the emotions and move on without questioning the past.

Collecting application – The examples above, don’t focus on the “money you could of had”. If Mahomes ended up a bust, you paid overs to proably get those cards you made a profit on. If you end up making a trade, don’t track the progress of the cards values for the rest of your life. What will happen is you will second guess your choices in collecting and get frustrated living in the “:what if”. It could also lead to questionable decisions chasing the next hot thing or paying crazy prices on breaks for the teams or player that is the next big thing – think the 16 year old in Bowman.

To wrap this up, I hope this offers some entertaining insight. I am no means an expert, I am just a crazy Aussie who collects pieces of cardboard with pictures of athletes on (paying $1AUD for 70 cents USD so often a 30% increase in the price). It is something I enjoy and I would say my collection (and often my thoughts or opinions) are truly unique.

The Season that was….

The Seahawks were painted as a dynasty before the season, a team that was built through the draft and had hit on multiple mid-to-late draft picks. While they didn’t win the NFC West, they continued to impart their will on opposition through a combination of running the ball and their imposing defense.  The season will also be remembered for how poorly Jimmy Graham was used.  Seen as the missing weapon Seattle needed, the pairing of Wilson and Graham seemed more like giving a child a toy that they were too young to know how to use properly.

The bright spots

Thomas Rawls –  When Marshawn Lynch went down injured, many wondered how the offense would function.  Up until he suffered an injury himself, Rawls excelled as a runner in the Seattle system and should prove to be more than an adequate replacement for Beast Mode.

Doug Baldwin – Every year Baldwin is written off by many as a NFL wide receiver, and every year he seems to go out and play lights out.  The Wilson-to-Baldwin connection resulted in 1069 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns.  Baldwin is Wilson’s favourite target in the passing game and seemed to always have a multi-touchdown game when it mattered.

Michael Bennett/Cliff Avril – This pair have produced ever since they both signed as free agents and give the Seahawks a talented set of pass rushers (19 sacks between them for the 2015 season).  Bennett is easily one of the most underrated defensive lineman in the game.

Non first round draft pick that was a hit

Given that Thomas Rawls was an undrafted free agent, he was not considered.

Tyler Lockett – The diminutive wide receiver out of Kansas State took the league by storm as a returner and as a wide receiver.  He will continue to develop into a big play receiver and will give Wilson a weapon who can take any catch to the end zone.

Second year player who has taken the next step

Justin Britt – Taken in the second round, Britt started as a rookie at right tackle and has moved inside to guard.  He appears to made that position his, which is a good thing given the movements that have occurred on the offensive line in the last 12 months.

Tough decisions to make

Does the offense evolve?

With the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, do we finally see Russell Wilson unleash his arm? While he is still feeling out Jimmy Graham as a receiver, he  is developing a great relationship with Baldwin and Lockett.

The offensive line – This is an area that needs to be fixed and will most likely get targeted in the draft.  Russell Okung leaving town could be a massive loss for the team.